NOAA issued its outlook at a news conference in Honolulu to urge Hawaii residents to be fully prepared for the onset of the hurricane season, which begins on June 1.
"Now is the time to prepare for the hurricane season in the central Pacific," said Ray Tanabe, director of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, part of NOAA’s National Weather Service. "Last year we had a quiet season. It is definitely not the time to let our guard down."
The seasonal hurricane outlook is produced in collaboration with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. For 2011, the outlook calls for a 70% chance of a below normal season, a 25% chance of a near normal season, and a 5% chance of an above normal season. We expect 2-4 tropical cyclones to affect the central Pacific this season. An average season has 4-5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
This outlook is a general guide to the overall seasonal hurricane activity and does not predict whether, where, when, or how many of these systems will affect Hawaii. Once a tropical cyclone forms in or migrates into the central Pacific or moves into the area, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center swings into action.
Tanabe said, "Our hurricane specialists are ready to track any tropical cyclone, from a depression to a hurricane in the Central Pacific Basin, providing accurate forecasts all along its path."
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center continuously monitors weather conditions, employing a network of satellites, land- and ocean-based sensors and aircraft reconnaissance missions operated by NOAA and its partners. This array of data supplies the information for complex computer modeling and human expertise that serves as the basis for the hurricane center’s track and intensity forecasts that extend out five days.
NOAA’s National Weather Service is the primary source of weather data, forecasts and warnings for the United States and its territories. The agency operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and forecast system in the world, helping to protect lives and property and enhance the national economy.
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