Synopsis
A band of clouds will bring showers to Kauai and Oahu today. The rest of the state will likely have fine weather. The showers may linger over the west end of the island chain through late Wednesday. Light trades will return late in the workweek.
Discussion
A northeast to southwest band of clouds and showers that may have been a front a long time ago will stall over the Kauai channel or Oahu today. The showers may linger over the west end of the island chain including Kauai and Oahu through the rest of the workweek. A strong front is forecast to approach the islands from the northwest late Sunday. Models stall the front just west of Kauai, but call for a chance of heavy rain over Kauai early next week. The forecast that far out in time is, of course, subject to revision.
Throughout all of the comings and goings over the west end of the island chain, an east to west surface ridge and attendant fine weather is forecast for Maui county and the Big Island. The ridge will move to the north, with light trade winds filling across the state by Thursday. Light southeast and south winds will return late in the weekend ahead of the approaching front mentioned above.
In spite of a couple of shortwave troughs aloft passing north of Hawaii on Wednesday and Thursday through Friday, the airmass, though juicy, will probably not be unstable enough to fire off thunderstorms. The dynamics with the late weekend trough could however bring some thunderstorms to Kauai and vicinity. Stay tuned.
Additional info, the brisk west winds aloft are decreasing with the departure of an upper trough to our north. Although the high clouds of the last week or so have been pushed east of Hawaii, they will probably return on Tuesday when the winds aloft return out of the southwest in advance of the upper troughs mentioned above. Southwest low level winds have cleared Kauai and to a lesser extent Oahu of the volcanic haze. The return of southeast winds will however spread the haze back over the entire state tonight through Friday.
Marine
A northwest swell has put advisory level surf along the north and west facing shores of Niihau Kauai and Molokai, and the north facing shores of Oahu until 6 pm HST today.
A small craft advisory is in effect for all Kauai waters, including Kauai channel, until 6 pm HST today. The advisory is for high seas and swells.
Aviation
Airmet tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence below 15 thousand feet to the north and east of mountains from Maui to Kauai. Guidance shows these winds diminishing later today.
Airmet sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration over Kauai as a band of low level moisture continues to stream up over the island from the southwest.
A few patches of low clouds continue to linger across the remainder of the state. Most of these clouds should burn off in the next couple of hours.
Watches/Warnings/Advisories
High surf advisory until 6 pm HST today for north shores of Niihau Kauai Oahu and Molokai.
Small craft advisory until 6 pm HST today for Kauai waters around Kauai including the Kauai channel.
See the original article at: KHON2 Developing Stories
